Take a bearing, don’t estimate – Update

I believe forecasting software development using the Monte Carlo method is even easier than I thought. In my previous article I used averages of past cycle times to come up with an idea of how much effort future tasks would take. This was my basic data set: a log of cycle times of 14 tasks […]

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Take a bearing, don’t estimate

Estimation in software development is putting the burden on the wrong shoulders. Ultimately the software developers are carrying it – even though they have the least control over living up to their promises. Also they are the ones with least experience in tracking budgets. Estimation, i.e. prediction is the duty of leaders. They are responsible […]

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The Illusionary Premises of Software Estimation

When I left the dentist’s office today I was asked to make new appointments, one for tooth cleaning and another one to get a small filling. The dentist handed me a small note to show to the receptionist. It had scribbled on it the estimated duration of the session to make the filling: 30 minutes. […]

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